Figure 6. Hubbert's curve for world oil production 1930 to 2080. The peak of the curve is about 2006 (Deffeyes set Thanksgiving Day, 2005, for the timing of the peak based on all production except tar sands and LNG and by this calculation, we are on the downhill side now.  When other sources of oil (tar sands) are included in the data, the peak may stretch to 2010. Some "cornucopians" who believe that new finds or new techniques will come to the rescue set peak dates far into the future. Deffeyes disputes these "peaks" because such events have not changed the shape of Hubbert's curves significantly in the past. See Deffeyes, 2006, for the details of constructing Hubbert's curves. The bottom line is that the total world production is about 2 trillion barrels (horizontal axis), but we will see a real shortage of oil soon, no matter what comes on line. Only another embargo of oil (in other words, the suppliers will turn off the spigot to the users) will change the shape of the curve because it will force a longer use time, but we'd not want to see that! In a world that trades oil globally, countries like the USA that have exceeded their production capabilities (about 65 of the 98 countries that produce oil have already passed their peaks) cannot attain energy independence based on oil; they simply do not have enough production or reserves. They will always be beholden to countries which have not yet passed their own production limits and who are willing to put their oil on the international market. Maybe energy security made possible by negotiation, treaty or take-over can be attained, however.  The cost will be enormous. See http://www.hubbertpeak.com/. (After Deffeyes, 2002, Fig. 2).