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TABLE 1. Questions explored using the simulation framework and the parameters relevant to each experiment. Results of each experiment are summarized with reference to key figures. The ‘*’ symbol signifies parameters that are fixed across all simulations.

Question Fixed parameters Varied parameters Result
Do simulations produce similar assemblages as found in the empirical fossil assemblages? Number of specimens*
Species abundance distributions along the gradient*
DCA value of the simulated assemblage DCA scores are accurately replicated, richness and evenness are comparable to empirical assemblages, but overestimated
How does excursion magnitude and resolution potential affect event detection? No bioturbation
0.001x Transition
100% Completeness
Excursion magnitude
Resolution potential
Background value
Increased resolution potential and increased excursion magnitude increase accurate event detection
How does the background value alter event detection? Background value does not affect event detection at similar relative magnitudes
How does the abruptness of the transition between background and event affect event detection? -0.5 Background
No bioturbation
100% Completeness
Transition duration Increased transition duration increases accurate detection of events
How does sampling completeness affect event detection? -0.5 Background Sampling completeness Event detection is reduced with decreased sampling completeness
How does bioturbation affect event detection? -0.5 Background
0.001x Transition
100% Completeness
Complete mixing of assemblages over 10 cm mixing depth Bioturbation decreases event detection at low resolution potentials, but only affects recovered excursion magnitude at high generating event magnitude
How does sample mixing affect the observed event value? -0.5 Background Proportion of event assemblage Event value DCA-1 values approach the true event value as the contribution of the event assemblage increases
Does a small pilot data set produce the same estimates as the full data set? -0.5 Background
0.001x Transition
25% Completeness
Sample thickness Event duration Yes, simulations based on the smaller dataset produce similar estimates of event detection accuracy
What is the expected ability to resolve 100-year-long events over the Gulf of Alaska record? 3 cm sample thickness
-0.5 Background
25% Completeness
0.001x Transition
Sedimentation rates 100-year-long events are accurately detected when sedimentation rates are high, but excursion magnitudes are underestimated when sedimentation rates are low